1. A change in Fed leadership, lower interest rates, and a shift in the Fed's balance sheet management policy.
The mandate of the Federal Reserve Chair expires in May 2026, opening the possibility of a shift in the monetary framework. President Donald Trump has consistently supported a policy of lower interest rates and will have significant influence over the selection of a new chair. In parallel, a slowdown or cessation of the Fed's restrictive balance sheet management policy is expected, which traditionally leads to a lower discount rate, cheaper capital, and higher equity valuations.
2. Higher disposable income and support for consumer spending.
Tax changes lead to higher net income for a significant portion of American households, including through lower taxation of tips and overtime pay. Combined with tax refunds upon filing returns, this supports consumer spending — the primary driver of the American economy and corporate revenues.
3. Tax incentives for corporate profits.
The ability to expense research and development costs incurred in the United States as a current expense rather than amortizing them improves free cash flows and reported earnings. This incentivizes investment and accelerates capital expenditure in key sectors.
4. The political cycle and a pro-market configuration of power.
The midterm elections in November 2026 raise the importance of financial markets on the political agenda. With Donald Trump's presidency and a Republican majority in Congress, a pro-market orientation of economic policy is expected. Historically, such a configuration is associated with heightened sensitivity to market disruptions, as a potential stock market crisis would have a direct negative impact on electoral results.
5. Continuing Transformation Through Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence remains a long-term structural driver. Companies that successfully implement AI solutions improve their efficiency, optimize costs, and increase their margins, supporting sustainable earnings growth at the index level.
6. Reshoring and Strategic Capital Expenditure
The process of returning strategic manufacturing to the United States is accelerating, particularly in semiconductors, energy, and digital infrastructure. The combination of government incentives, geopolitical factors, and private capital provides long-term revenue visibility for leading industrial and technology companies.
7. A More Moderate and Selective Trade Policy
Following a period of intense trade confrontation, a more pragmatic and selective approach is expected, including exemptions and sector-specific agreements. This supports the revenues of American multinational companies without a significant increase in costs and inflationary pressure.
8. Global Defense Modernization and Support for the American Defense Industry
The growing need for armed forces modernization and increased defense budgets on a global scale is forming a long-term investment cycle in the defense sector. In this context, the American defense industry is well positioned to capitalize on its technological advantage, scale, and leading role in global supply chains.
9. Government Spending and Fiscal Stimulus for the Economy
Leading American media and analysts emphasize the active role of the state as an economic stimulus in 2026, with a heightened focus on infrastructure, energy security, technology, and the national industrial base. This spending has a high multiplier effect, supports employment, and creates a direct revenue impulse for publicly listed companies.
10. A Supportive Macroeconomic Environment for Corporate Earnings
The combination of lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus, the political cycle, and structural investments creates an environment in which corporate earnings growth remains resilient — a key fundamental for positive market performance.
Conclusion
Entering 2026, the American equity market benefits from a rare confluence of monetary support, fiscal stimulus, and long-term structural trends. In this context, U.S. equities remain supported by improving financial conditions and expected earnings growth, forming a constructive medium-term investment outlook.
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At present, this configuration of factors supports a constructive scenario for markets, with future developments depending on macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.
This material is informational in nature and should not be regarded as advice and therefore does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past performance of financial instruments is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them may decline, profits are not guaranteed, and there is a risk that you may not recover the full amount of your invested capital.